All market scenarios
@unipcs · 24h UP

A one-day call on @unipcs, worked end to end

Market scenario · follow the readings from start to finish.

[ Overview ]

A market scenario of the one-day call on @unipcs: opened flat at 50c a side, closed with the call in the money. The figures show what the settlement job does with a reading. Explore the calculation step by step.

[ Categorized ]
Settlement$HOODSIGNALUP24 hoursTradersUSDG
$7.0M
The strike

The median of the three snapshots nearest the open, written on chain before anybody had traded the market.

$11.8M
The settlement

The median of $11.79M, $11.81M and $11.84M, the three readings nearest the close. The middle one decided it.

2.27x
Paid to UP

229.89 shares from a $100 ticket, each redeeming for 1 USDG less 2% of the winnings.

Nobody asked them. The market existed because their total PnL is on a public board, and it settled because three readings of that board disagreed by less than a percent.
@unipcs · Listed caller · fomo
[ The details ]

The question

Will @unipcs be up over the next 24 hours? That is the whole contract. The call pays if their total account PnL is higher at the close than at the open, the put pays if it is not, and there is no third outcome.

The underlying is not a token they hold. It is the single figure their own leaderboard ranks them by, which is also the figure they are judged by socially. That is what makes it worth trading.

The keeper had been reading the board every five minutes throughout the window, writing each reading to its own file with a timestamp and a source. The settlement job took the three snapshots nearest the close, discarded anything older than twenty minutes, and used the median.

$11.81M against a strike of $7.0M is a rise, so the outcome is the call. The resolver posted that outcome together with the keccak256 of the settlement file, and the file names both figures, the window and the three snapshots it read.

  • Opened 2026-09-02 13:43Z, closed 2026-09-03 13:43Z.
  • Seeded with $10.00 of liquidity, both sides listed at 50c.
  • Collateral is USDG on Robinhood Chain, chain 4663.
  • A single print at the bell would have moved the median by nothing.

How it settled

Every share on the UP side became worth exactly 1 USDG. Every share on the DOWN side became worth nothing. Redemption is pull, not push: nobody had to run a distribution.

The 2% fee is taken from winnings at redemption and never on the way in, so a losing position paid nothing at all and the multiple shown on the button is the one that landed.

What it paid

A $100 ticket bought 229.89 UP shares. Each redeemed for 1 USDG, less 2% of the 129.89 USDG of winnings: 227.29 USDG back, 2.27x on the ticket.

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